ProTips
VSiN ShowSportShow DateVSiN Pro Tip
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-08-30Patriots have a tough time in Miami (2-8 ATS last 10 in MIA)
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-08-3049ers offense is more open (playcalling) with Trey Lance as QB vs Jimmy Garoppolo
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2022-08-31Early Down Success Rate (EDSR) can be used to predict a teams' long- and short-term success on offense and defense
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2022-08-31Teams that show continuity and grasp new schemes early in the season are worth backing throughout the season
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-01Sometimes the best decision to make is to not place a bet if you've missed the best of the number
The Lombardi LineNFL 2022-09-01In survivor contests, stay away from road teams and division matchups in Week 1
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-02Timing: Importance of getting the best of the number. Temperament: Don't chase, know when not to bet
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-02Think of handicapping like creating a game plan similar to how coaches prepare for a game. It's important to focus on particular games instead handicapping every game on the board
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-03Always, always, always check the weather report before placing a bet
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-03Check quarterback home/road splits, college QB's tend to play better at home
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-04Bettors need a short memory, each season is a vacuum
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-04Weather is a bigger factor than home-field advantage
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-05When handicapping games, don't forget to account for each team's special teams unit
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-06Early line movement after College Football lines are posted can be an indicator of sharp action
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-06Disciplined teams with continuity, catching points at home are valuable and worth adding to your teaser
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-07In Week 1, two offensive-minded head coaches facing each other tend to have the point total go over, and two defensive-minded head coaches tend to have their games go under the point total
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-07Just because a team is leading on the scoreboard does not mean they're in control of the game, which adds value to the underdog on the in-game line
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-08Not all home fields are created equal. Home field advantage shouldn't always equate to 3 points
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-08Not all first head coaches are created the same, handicap accordingly
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-09Vig indicates which way the line is moving, which is crucial when looking at key numbers. The vig can help you identify if a number is going to change
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-09Be sure to consider heat and humidity when handicapping NFL Week 1 games
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-10Situational Betting: understanding where the teams are in their season and where they are headed next week.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-11Fade new coaches making their debut, they struggle in week 1 going 3-19-1 straight up in the last 4 years.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-11Make sure when you're checking the weather, check for humidity. It should factor into your handicapping.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-12The Week 1 box score can be deceiving. Players and coaches will learn and rebound in Week 2
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-12Whether they admit it or not, players are aware of the point spread and they use it as motivation
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-13For betting NFL teasers, know your expected value and have a strategy. Don't tease through zero
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-13For teams that struggled in Week 1, don't automatically fade them. It's a case-by-case situation and you should give yourself a few weeks to evaluate
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-14First down production in the fourth quarter can be an indication of a team's ability to control the game or come back late in the game
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-14You can't ignore handicapping the kicking matchup and how much of the betting outcome hinges on their results
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-15Situational betting: SMU has to play its former head coach next week. The Mustangs could be looking ahead to that matchup and overlooking Maryland
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-15The top wide receivers delivered in Week 1. The prop market has not caught up to the production of most wide receivers
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-16The sportsbooks know when to set a higher total with two good quarterbacks. If a number seems too high, it likely is.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-16Pro bettors bet numbers, not emotions. Try not to get emotional when placing a wager
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-17Bet 1Q or 1H with great teams like Georgia because they take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-17Interim coaches typically get bet. Be cognizant of the line movement as a result.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-18Multiple Odds: importance of being able to bet a different book. Finding the best number over the season will be more profitable.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-19If you wait until 10 minutes before kickoff, you're getting the worst of the number. That's not a profitable strategy over time
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-19Coaches can lose credibility in the locker room causing players to have less motivation. Denver Broncos backers, beware
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-20If you have conviction on a side and the line is moving that way, don't wait for the line to move too far and end up chasing a bad line
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-20You should consider the tempo of the game and how much pace of play will have an impact on the game total
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-21Early in the season, focus on turnover variance and the impact it's having on a team's success/failures
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-21Don't wait to bet a future on a team you like and they're going into the weekend as a heavy favorite. If they win as they're expected to, the value could be gone after the odds are updated
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-22Rushing TD's per team per game are at the lowest rate since 1937. Keep this in mind when examining the RB prop market
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-22Scoring is down in the NFL a touchdown per game since 2020. Through two weeks Unders are cashing at 22-10 and 6-1 in primetime
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-23Sportsbooks are looking more and more at in-game adjustments. Bettors need to handicap the coordinators as well; certain coordinators are better at adjusting than others.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-09-24When the money is one-sided and the number hasn't moved, something is fishy with the line.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2022-09-24Not all injuries are created the same. Certain injuries will move the number more than others.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-26In the 47 NFL games played so far this season, 18 have been decided by 3 points or fewer. Key numbers are crucial when betting pro football
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2022-09-26There's no position in any sport more important than quarterback to football (i.e.: Cowboys number comes down without Dak Prescott under center)
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-27Scoring is down in the NFL a TD per game since 2020. Through two weeks, unders are cashing at 22-10 (6-1 in primetime)
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-27It may be a good time to buy low on teams that have the talent, but haven't executed in the first three weeks
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-28Consider ties to previous regimes when handicapping teams that are unfamiliar, but have coaching connections
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-09-28If you can quantify the penalties a team commits, it is one of the best examples of team maturaty and discipline
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2022-09-29Understand the house rules when placing a wager. Weather will affect many of this weekend's games and it's important to know how bets are impacted.
The Lombardi LineALL2022-09-30Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2022-09-30Don't overdue your betting on Thursday Night Football. There will be other opportunities over the weekend.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-01Keep an eye on weather, Hurricane Ian might have have the impact we thought it woudl earlier in the week.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-01Alabama vs Arkansas: The road team has been 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-02You don't have to bet every game. If something looks fishy with a line, don't feel like you have to place a wager. IE: Commanders vs Cowboys
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-02Weather matters: it's not the rain, it's the wind that truly matters when handicapping football
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-03The notion that a line is a trap is a fallacy, readjust your thinking about trap games.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-03Rams vs 49ers: Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings, but be conscious of the line movement
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-04Teams with obvious personnel discrepancies such as injuries or just a pure talent mismatch can lead to in-game betting value
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-04Expect the market to adjust to lopsided trends. Just because unders are cashing in the NFL, look for teams to adjust their game plans to get more points on the board and the books to adjust their numbers throughout the season
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-05When playing the NFL futures market, put more stock into teams that have a top-ranked defense. Over the long season, top defenses can be the biggest difference in one-score games and have proven to make deep runs in the playoffs
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-05Be aware if an NFL team isn't playing a full 60 minutes. The Titans are being outscored 64-7 in the 2nd half, the Cardinals are being outscored 66-16 in the first half
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-06Handicap the injury report to get the best number before kickoff
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-06Bad teams are more consistently bad then good teams are consistently good
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-07Look at the contest line on Thursday and try to gauge line movement off of those numbers
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-07Texas vs Oklahoma: Wait to see the injury report if you like Oklahoma because the number may get bigger.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-08It's not always sexy, but home dogs playing a traveling West Coast can often be profitable
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-08There's no injury reports in college, so look for other outlets (including student papers) for the latest injury information.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-09Be careful with in-game betting, it's easy to chase, but be conscious of the number. And it seems obvious, but make sure you're watching the game to get the feel.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-10Divisional unders are 21-6 this season, and tonight's Monday Night Football game is another divisional matchup
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-10Raiders vs Chiefs: Money is coming in on the over, so the total is likely to move.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-11Consider the coach that you're betting on. With so many games coming down to a play or two, you have to look back at how each coach handles close games and how aggressive or conservative they may be if the game is close
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-11Do your research on backup quarterbacks and don't blindly follow the market movement after news of a starter sitting out. Each quarterback and each situation is different. The market can overreact to the change and present value on the side that's starting the backup quarterback
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-13When drama is swirliing with a team like Washington, sometimes the best play is no play.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-13Look for team total plays to support your opinion vs laying points with road favorites.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-14Favorites play into confirmation bias, don't let favorites play into your handicapping when betting games. Bettors should prove why a favorite should win, treat each side equally before picking a winner
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-15Injury reports are tricky with CFB, but vital to handicapping. Always look to the quarterback when a number starts to drop
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-15Sometimes the juice is worth the squeeze ... don't be afraid to buy a hook
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-16Instead of playing small favorites (only 1 or 2 points), think about playing the moneyline
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-16Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 6-0 ATS when at home following a loss. Packers are back home hosting the Jets
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-17Professional bettors will tease games up, recreational bettors typically tease games down
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-17The home team in the Broncos-Chargers matchup has been very profitable in recent years. Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings
The Lombardi LineALL2022-10-18Pay attention to commentators when they're discussing the identity of the teams that they're covering. They get a lot of access to teams throughout the week and can give you insight to the state of the locker room and information that you can file away for later
The Lombardi LineALL2022-10-18Don't bet trends blindly. Do your research into that particular matchup and see if that particular trend applies. Trends should be the extra evidence supporting your bet, not the only reason why you're placing it
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-20You don't have to bet every game, especially if you can't find the best number. There's a major difference between finding a 2.5 and a 3.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-20Handicap the referee. Many have tendencies adn when they align with specific teams, it can create huge total or ATS edges.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-21Keep an eye on the Giants' injury report. Saquon Barkley is nursing a shoulder injury, but his rush yards have not been adjusted yet
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-21When teasing games, make sure you're teasing through key numbers like 3,4,7, etc
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-22Shop around: There's a huge difference between 13.5 and 14.5 depending on which side you like. Make sure you shop around for the best number
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-22Know when to stay away from a game. If you like a side and didn't get the best of the number, don't chase it. IE Ole Miss at LSU
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-23Betting Splits can be a very helpful tool early in the week to let you know if a number may move and where the sharp money is
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-23When looking to tease, find a dog with a low total and tease through the key numbers.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-24Coaches have turned back the clock when it comes to running. Yards per rushing attempt is up across the league. The RB prop market is very much alive and well.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-24There's not much of a difference when hadicapping Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe for tonight's game vs. the Bears
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-25Consider the narrative and public perception leading up to certain matchups and how much of it is factored into the line posted. For example, when Bill Belichick and the Patriots are playing well, their line is going to be inflated because of their success in the past
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-25Don't just look at betting the full game. Sometime there's an edge in the first half line when you have a team like the Ravens that have consistently collapse in the second half of games
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-26Look beyond the numbers and at the intangibles of the particular matchup you're handicapping. Each team matches up differently to one another, and the numbers may not represent the mismatch
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-26Don't forget about rest advantages. If you look back at the last three weeks, the teams that are coming off of a Thursday night matchup, the following week have been 5-1 ATS
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-27Consider betting the OVER on Chris Godwin's recieving prop tonight vs the Ravens. Bucs coach Todd Bowles wants to throw it deep and Godwin is the only healthy option.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-28Don't overreact injury news that doesn't relate to the quarterback. Just because you see a star player like Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase is out this coming Sunday, doesn't mean you have to lay action on the Browns
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-28Trust your own power ratings vs public perception. It's easy to label a team good or bad because everyone says they are, but if your numbers tell you that the result will go against the popular opinion, either trust yourself or just lay off the bet
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-10-29Now that the College Football Playoff Comittee is watching, style points matter more than ever. Big favorites are less likely to take their foot off of the gas.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-29If a team is hot heading into their bye week, their momentum may be stopped with a week off. Consider fading the hot team coming out of their bye. (Ex: Eagles vs Steelers)
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-30Sportsbooks will often bake-in injury uncertainty into an opening number, but public money tends to move the line even more when official news is released. (Ex: Titans at Texans Week 8)
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-30The Eagles lead the league in first-half point differential and are 6-0 ATS in the first half. Consider taking the Eagles 1H number if the full-game line is too high for you.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-31Circle teams heading into their bye week and look to back them if you have additional supporting evidence that they have value. Teams usually play well heading into their bye and have gone 8-3 ATS this season
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-10-31When handicapping and looking at turnover stats, don't forget to factor in turnover on downs. More teams are going for it now and turnover stats don't count for turnover on downs
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-01Look at teams at the trade deadline and how they're altering their rosters. The impact of team like the Bears trading away defensive assets can possibly lead to more overs on a week-to-week basis
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-01Recognize teams that have roster deficiencies as we later into the season and if those teams have the personnel to overcome top players being out. Teams like the Bucs are just as if not more injured than other teams in their division. In a tight race for the NFC South, other teams getting healthier like the Falcons have value on the futures market
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-02Make adjustments to your power ratings when you're seeing poor in-game adjustments from the coaching staff and keep tabs on when the coaching staff is the reason a team isn't covering the spread
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-02If you're a bettor that makes your own spreads, trust your own numbers even when they're dramatically off from the line that's posted. You're making your own number to find discrepancies and edges, and you would rather be wrong with your own numbers vs not cashing a ticket because you didn't trust yourself
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-03Don't settle for a bad number, shop around for the best number, e.g., tonight's TNF game is foating between 13.5 and 14. Depdning on what you like the hook can make all the difference.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-03Look for tough travel spots in 'out of division games' and take the home dog, e.g., Dolphins -5 vs Bears
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-04Professional bettors play numbers, not teams. When handicapping games, be cognizant of the key nunbers and identify them before placing a bet.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-11-05When handicapping a college football game, visualize how the game will play out. If a team needs to score a certain number of points to win, it may lead to you betting a total instead of a side.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-11-05Weather is affecting many of the midwestern games. Don't forget to handicap the weather before placing a bet
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-06Weather may play a factor today, but not just the typical fall weather. Keep an eye out for heat and humidy. IE Jacksonville hosting Las Vegas
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-06Unders are hitting at nearly 58% this season and in particular unders in divisional games (hitting at 69%).
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-07Colts are so volatile at the moment, you're better off not wagering on them.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-07The Ravens under John Harbaugh 16-9-2 on more than a week's rest. Tonight's game vs. the Saints is an example of that nugget.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-08Don't forget about the rest edge as the season plays out. Since Week 5, teams coming off playing on Thursday night are 8-2 ATS this season
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-08Look to tease short underdogs up. With how tight the NFL winning margins have been, teasing short dogs up have been profitable this season
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-09Pay attention to recent form. Sometimes the handicap can be as simple as playing the side that has been playing well for the last three to four weeks. Looking at both teams bodies of work can be an easy way to size up the matchup
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-09Highlight home teams going into their bye week, as they have gone 7-1 straight up and against the spread this NFL season
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2022-11-10Don't be afraid to wait for a game to start and play in-game to get a better number.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-10Professional bettors won't let Carolina's and Atlanta's last shootout influence how their handicap the total. These teams may have combined fofr 71 points last time they met, but it doesn't mean we're headed for another shootout.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-11Betting earlier typically gives you better numbers before the public money pours in. Professional Bettors play numbers not teams.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-11If you're interested in backing the Chargers this weekend on the road vs. 49ers, keep their road record ATS and straight up in mind. Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and are riding a 3-game road winning streak straight up.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-11-12TCU has been very profitable in Austin in recent years. Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Texas.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-11-12Alabama has struggled to cash in Mississippi vs the Rebels. Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Mississippi.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-13Look for correlation between a team's best player and taking that team in the game. If you think Etienne is going to go over on his props, you should also look to back Jacksonville today.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-14If you're considering betting in-game, make sure you've handicapped the coaching staff. Don't forget to consider how good those coaches are at making in-game adjustments.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-14The Vikings are catching 2-points at home. Vikings catching points at home are a great opportunity to be apart of a tease
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-15At this point in the season, when you're getting involved in the NFL make/miss playoffs market, don't blindly place wagers. Examine the team you're looking to back and highlight their schedule going forward
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-15NFL divisional opponents the second time around tend to play each other close and getting points can be valuable depending on the matchup. Example, last night the Commanders getting 11-points vs the Eagles and winning the game outright 32-21
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-16Recognize when the numbers have shifted significantly and value for a particular future is gone. Bettors could have placed action down on Nick Sirianni to win NFL Coach of the Year at 20/1 before the season. Throughout the season the number has come down to +100 on the Eagles head coach
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-16When playing quarterback rushing props, if they're facing a team that low pressure/sack rates, don't look to invest in playing the over. They're likely to stay in the pocket and scramble less
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-17Sometimes the best bet is the one you odn't make. With all the action going on right now, (NFL, CFB, NCAAB, World Cup, NHL, NBA) it's easy to bleed units on lesser options.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-17Buffalo vs Cleveland: Know the house rules regarding venue change. Every book is different in how they handle these changes.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-18Check the house rules for games like Buffalo and Cleveland. Every shop has different rules and can handle this site change differently
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-18If you like the Vikings to win against the Cowboys, consider taking the Vikings on the ML rather than paying the -110 tax and taking +1.5
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-20DAL vs MIN: The dogs have barked historically in this matchup. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-20NYJ at NE: The Jets have struggled to fly in New England. Jets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New England.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-21If you're interested in backing the Cardinals tonight, understand Arizona is already down one QB. The Cardinals could be one injury away from investing in a third-string quarterback.
The Lombardi LineALL2022-11-21The Broncos should be a team to fade with all the turmoil surrounding this team and their coaching staff.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-22In matchups with low totals like the Broncos-Panthers (36), if there’s an early score the in-game total could get inflated and there can be value on buying under the total. Teams script plays to start games and can potentially alter the true value on the total of that particular matchup.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-22Handicap the weather before you place your wager. Games with consistent wind of 15 MPH or more, the under is 27-10 on the season.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-23When live betting football in-game totals, if you have a matchup between two defensive teams that allow an early score, look for the total to get inflated and potential value on betting the under
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-23Underdogs have well this season, but on Thanksgiving favorites tend to cover the spread. In the last 49 Thanksgiving matchups, favorites are 33-16 ATS, and play especially well on the road going 18-5 ATS
The Lombardi LineWORLD CUP2022-11-24If you're looking to make play on a World Cup in-game wait until a goal is scored. When the first goal comes, it typically opens the flood gates.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-24When playing the first half in the NFL, look for a dominate offense that doesn't have a strong run game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-25Cincinnati vs Tennessee: If you're interested in backing the Cincinnati, the Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tennessee.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-25Washington vs Atlanta: Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Look to play the Falcons if you like this trend.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-11-26ND vs USC: The Fighting Irish have not faired well in SoCal. Notre Dame is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Southern California.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-26BAL vs JAX: Home team is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-27WSH at ATL: Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-27GB at PHI: Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-28IND vs PIT: Najee Harris has struggled recently to run the ball. Look to his under prop 63.5 rushing yards.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-28IND vs PIT: Home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-29Pay attention to players’ comments in the media. It can give you insight to what’s going on behind closed doors and may lead you to fade a team if their performance on the field is reflective of the state of the locker room.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-29This late into the season, don’t overreact to getting hot, being on a losing streak, or suffering a bad beat. Stay consistent with your handicapping throughout the season.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-30Pay attention to a teams level of competition on a week-to-week basis. It’s great to support your lean with stats, but look at who that particular team is putting up those stats on, and how they matchup vs their current opponent.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-11-30Be patient and wait for all the injury information to come out. You don’t have to force in a bet early in the week. It’s better to not place a bet and miss out on a number you wanted than playing a bad number.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-01KC vs CIN: These teams roll out high-powered offense. However, the under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Look to the play the under in this matchup.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-01BUF at NE: Josh Allen carried the Bills the last two times they played the Patriots. Look to go over Josh Allen's run total vs. the Patriots.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-02Injury reports will come out today. If you want to bet early, don't forget to check the injury reports before placing a wager.
The Lombardi LineALL2022-12-02Don't always trust your gut. If you've handicapped the matchup correctly, trust the numbers. Your gut can be misleading, numbers never lie.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-04GB vs CHI: As Aaron Rodgers noted, the Packers have owned the Bears. Packers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 meetings in Chicago.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-04TEN vs PHI: If you like Tennessee, the Titans have been successful vs. the Eagles going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-05NO vs TB: Look to play the under in tonight's MNF game. Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Tampa Bay.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-12-05In Bowl games that don't matter, players will hold out of the games causing numbers to jump all over the place.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-06Look to fade teams that have a disconnect from the coordinator and players on the field like Russell Wilson and Head Coach Nathanial Hackett.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-06Underdogs of 1-3.5 points when betting against teams in the lower half of the league in teaser legs, underdogs are 15-1.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-07When betting on season win totals, look at teams that play, successful teams late in the season as they might not be playing for anything in the last week or two of the season.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-08This late in the season, understand motivation factors and what will get a team up for a game when they have little chance at making the playoffs.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-08The Rams have lost six consecutive games SU, the longest losing streak under Sean McVay. Rams are failing to cover the spread by 6.7 PPG this season, worst ATS margin in the NFL.
The Lombardi LineMLB2022-12-09Pay attention to the offseason moves in baseball, futures prices are changing. As teams build their roster through free agency and trades, monitor the futures markets.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-09Stay away from laying -3.5 with the Dolphins vs the Chargers. You could've laid under a FG earlier in the week and the best of the number is gone.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-12-10There's no reason to rush to the counter to bet bowl games. Make sure you have the best information possible before you play.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-12-10The Army-Navy game has gone UNDER 16 straight years, going under by avg of 14.3 points. At the current number of 32.5 it would be 15-7 to the OVER since 2000.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-11Buccaneers are listed as underdogs for the first time this season. Brady is 23-6 straight up, 14-15 against the spread versus rookie quarterbacks in his career.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-11Since Lamar Jackson’s first start in 2018, four other Ravens QBs have made a start — Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley. Those QBs are 6-10 SU and ATS, but Tyler Huntley is 3-1 ATS.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-12New England is 7-3-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season (3-1-1 ATS this season). Bill Belichick is 62-34-1 ATS following a loss with New England. Belichick is also 21-13-2 ATS in the regular season with at least 10 days of game prep.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-12Dallas' close win vs the Texans is another example of how dangerous laying a big spread in the NFL can be. Consider staying away from betting on these big spreads and avoid teasing 17-point favorites down at all costs.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-14When using data to handicap games try to use the most recent data that dates back to 4 to 5 games. Whole season data can be misleading.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-15Be careful backing young teams like Seattle who rely on rookie players late in the season. Attrition wears on guys in their first season out of college.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-15When a player or a team in the NFL shows you who they are, believe them. Don't make excuses for players or teams in your handicap.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-16The Panthers are laying three points at home this week vs the Steelers. Mike Tomlin, as a road dog of three or more after a home loss, is a tempting play.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-17Justin Tucker is the best kicker in the NFL, and perhaps in the history of the league. When the Ravens are getting points (like today +3 vs the Browns), a solid place kicker can be the difference between an ATS win and a loss.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-17Since 2017, Miami is 0-7 outright and ATS in games 40 degrees and below (average margin: -20.9 PPG). The Bills are 7-point favorites at home today vs the Dolphins.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-18Consider the familiarity between the Patriots and Raiders in your handicap of today's game. There is intimate knowledge on both sides in every facet of the game. Every coach on each side of the field has been trained and developed in some aspect of the New England system.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-18Cincinnati is 10-1 ATS in its past 11 games, the best mark in the league in that span. Tampa Bay is 1-9-1 ATS in its past 11 games, the worst mark in the league in that span.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-19Take a look at play selection when evaluating offenses. Great offenses have a good balance of run and pass. One-dimensional offenses are easier to stop because their plays skew one way or the other.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-19The Patriots offensive scheme is not working, Patricia and Judge have not built an effective pass game. Patriots +3.5 might be short this week vs the Bengals.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-20Don't buy into the generic betting trends like the Super Bowl loser has a down year, case and point the Bengals are have a great year and look like a real contender this year.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-21When handicapping bad weather games, make sure to focus on wind rather than precipitation, the wind affects more areas of the game than rain or snow will.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-22Look at Teasers later in the year when totals are lower and lines are sharper.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-25Today is good for in-game betting opportunities because it is easier to focus on stand-alone games.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-28Other than just factoring in motivation, try to factor in when they play these games, for example, the Jaguars really don't have to win this week as the last game of the season means more.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-29When playing a teaser, you want those 6 points to be as valuable as possible. The lower the total, the more valuable the teaser.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-29Dallas is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games. The Cowboys are also 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight games.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-30Broncos-Chiefs may be a stay away game. The Chiefs never seem to stay engaged entirely throughout the game. They play above their competition for a certain point, then they lose interest and let their opponent climb back into the game and don’t cover.
The Lombardi LineNFL2022-12-30Don't assume that teams with a lot to play for will automatically play great, while teams without stakes will play poorly.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-12-31Michigan is a very physical football team that can wear you down over the course of the game. Take a look at the second-half spread when it's posted and consider backing the Wolverines.
The Lombardi LineCFB2022-12-31The outright winners in College Football Playoff games are 20-4 ATS. If you like a favorite to win outright, consider betting them on the spread. If you like an underdog to cover, consider taking the ML.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-01The Jaguars have lost seven straight games outright as a favorite, tied for the fourth-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Four of those losses came against Houston.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-01Packers (-3.5) vs Vikings will be just the 10th time in the last 20 years a team under .500 SU will be favored over a team with an 80% or better win percentage in December or later. The previous nine teams listed as favorites went 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-02Buffalo is 15-5-2 ATS when the spread is between +3 and -3 since the start of 2019, tied with Baltimore for the best cover percentage over that span.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-02Try to find a trusted source or process in your NFL handicap and stick to it. Do your best to avoid all of the noise from entering into a handicap you trust.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-04When you handicap the last week of the season, make sure you know who is starting and who is going to play the whole game as many teams might only play half the game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-04If you are handicapping week 18, teams that HAVE to win against teams that don't have anything to play for are 41% straight up. So don't blindly bet teams that just have to win.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-05Handicapping NFL week 18 is a lot like the preseason; information is king. Bettors who can get in front of the info on who will play can have an edge.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-05In week 18, try to pick out the games that you know each team will try to compete. It's hard to handicap a game with different levels of motivation for each team.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-06The Ravens at Bengals (-10) game spread is big, but the battles between these two teams are always close and even though the Ravens appear to be outmanned they seem to find a way to make it a close game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-06Be careful betting a big spread like Eagles (-14) vs Giants this week. The Eagles will get the lead early and appear to cover, but once they have control of the game, they will join the Giants in their retreat, opening for a back door cover.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-07Titans' HC Mike Vrabel is 21-9-1 ATS when he's getting three or more. He has won 19 of those 31 games SU.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-07With point spreads over 6 points in Saturday's games, it sets up to make correlated bets. If you like the underdog, consider playing the under and vice versa.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-08Keep an eye out for late pregame line movements based off results in earlier games. For example, if the Ravens win vs the Bengals, the Chargers would have to win to lock up the #5 seed so the number will move toward LA.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-08Six straight Browns' games have gone under the total including all five Deshaun Watson starts. Steelers-Browns total is set at 40.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-09The 49ers, Bengals, Bills, Chiefs and Jaguars are all headed into the NFL playoffs on a win streak of 5 or more games. These teams are peaking at the right time, the Super Bowl winner could come from this group.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-01-09Favorites of 5 points or more are just 6-9 SU and 4-11 ATS in national title games since 1999. Georgia is laying 13.5 tonight vs TCU.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-12NFL head coaches call games differently in the playoffs from the regular season. HCs with playoff experience have a significant advantage over those without.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-13Take NFL Week 18 results with a grain of salt when handicapping into the playoffs. Effort level, motivation, and player availability are much different for the last game of the season.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-13If you've waited this long to make a bet for Wild Card Weekend, you should keep waiting until all of the injuries are clear - especially at QB (ie Baltimore Ravens, Dolphins).
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-14Doug Pederson is 5-1 ATS in the playoffs, including 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU as an underdog. Jacksonville is 7-5 outright as an underdog this season. One more win would match the most underdog wins in a season.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-14Teams that have balance on both sides of the ball can advance in the playoffs. When handicapping these matchups, favor teams with balance over just an explosive offense and / or lockdown defense.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-15The Giants were a league-best 13-4 ATS this season, including 7-1 ATS on the road. New York has covered four straight games and four straight road games.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-15For the first time since 2009, all of the Wild Card games are rematches. You can use these previous results in your handicap, but make sure to note different starting QBs, and other injuries.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-16Balanced teams and balanced offenses win NFL playoff games. The Buccaneers are at the bottom of the league in every rushing statistic - putting all of the pressure on Tom Brady and the passing game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-16Tom Brady is 7-3 ATS in his career as a postseason underdog, with four straight outright wins. Brady has never been a home underdog in a playoff game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-19The lines for Saturday's games are perfect for teasers on the Chiefs and Eagles. Expect the line to move based off teaser protection before kickoff. Don't wait if you want to tease.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-19Shop the derivative markets when playing futures. For example, the Chiefs to win the AFC is available at +130, but an AFC West team to win the AFC is +145.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-20The public may be overreacting to the Wild Card Round in the Bills-Bengals matchup. Last week the Bills struggled to beat an injury riddled Miami team, and no one is worried, yet the Bengals struggled and are penalized.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-20Use previous matchups as a starting point in your handicap of the divisional round, but don't put too much weight on it. Focus instead on matchups and current form.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-21Don't underestimate the importance of the kicking game in covering a number. A missed FG is the same as a turnover.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-21Lines don't always move because of action or sharp opinion on a side. When there's an opportunity for a 6-point teaser to go through a few key numbers, books will often move for teaser protection.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-22For today's NFL games, make sure to shop around. There are both 6s and 5.5s in Bills-Bengals along with 4s and 3.5s in 49ers-Cowboys in the market. If you like the underdog, take the bigger number and vice versa.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-22Yesterday's Giants-Eagles game reinforced an important principle in betting playoff games. Focus on how teams and players match up as opposed to how these teams played in their previous games.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-23Balanced attacks are the way to go on offense in the NFL playoffs. Philadelphia and San Francisco both do a great job of avoiding being one-dimensional.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-23Shop around on odds to win the Super Bowl, prices will fluctuate greatly across the board based off individual books' liability in the Super Bowl futures market.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-26Trust your year-long numbers, we have 3 data points that show Chiefs would be -5 or -5.5 with a healthy Mahomes. Don't overreact to a one-week sample size.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-26For us as handicappers, we need to not assume whether Mahomes is healthy or not. We must bet the game as if Mahomes is a full go—then make “in-game” adjustments.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-27As the prop markets get more and more popular, take advantage of the differences in prices / numbers from book to book. Shop around for props just like you would shop for sides and totals.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-27The betting market is telling you something in the Eagles-49ers game. The money is all over Philadelphia, and the vig is inching towards -3 but the line has not yet moved from -2.5.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-28This is the first time since 1997 that both conference championships are under the key number of 3. Last time this happened, both underdogs won outright.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-28When your QB is injured in-game, you have to come up with a workaround quickly. However, when you know what your QBs limitations are you can gameplan around them. Andy Reid is too smart to not have a plan for how to handle Mahomes' injury.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-29Both the Eagles and the 49ers want to play from in front. If either team gets out to an early lead, it may be difficult for the opponent to come back - especially with rookie QB Brock Purdy.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-29Kansas City is 7-11 ATS this season. However, the Chiefs are 2-2 ATS this year when the line is in the +3 to -3 range.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-30The Eagles have yet to have to play their best football so far in the playoffs - it may be the easiest road to the Super Bowl in a long time. This could come back to bite them vs Kansas City.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-01-30The Super Bowl is the most efficient betting market of the year - evidenced by the quick adjustment to the opening line last night. Don't expect too much movement throughout the week unless there's breaking news.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-02In the long run, the Super Bowl is just one game in a year. Don't over bet it simply because it's the Super Bowl.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-02If you want to bet an Over for a player prop in the Super Bowl, you should bet it now because the number will only go up due to casual bettors inflating this number come later on in the week.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-03There can be some pretty wide discrepancies on prop numbers and vig, shop around and you can create an opportunity for some pretty wide middles.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-03The Chiefs-Titans game is a good comp for Kansas City's matchup with the Eagles. The Titans defensive line is the closest thing KC has seen to the Eagles' front. In the Titans game, Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 68 times.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-04Last year's Eagles-Chiefs game may not be a great comparison to use in your Super Bowl handicap. Instead, look at a game like Chiefs-Titans earlier in the year. The Titans have a comparable defensive front to the Eagles and put together an effective game plan to limit the Chiefs offense.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-04Most teams have size thresholds for positions like QB in the draft room. It doesn't mean a small player like Bryce Young can't get a good grade, just not an elite one on many teams' boards. Consider that before you bet on the No. 1 pick.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-05The Chiefs have FOUR rookie DBs with Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, and Bryan Cook. If the Chiefs D focuses on pass rush and leaves the DBs to play man-to-man, the Eagles' pass catchers have the advantage.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-05With so many prop options available for the Super Bowl, it’s important not to contradict yourself. Create a game “script” and bet accordingly.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-10If it's a high-scoring game, the Chiefs' offense has the advantage. If the Eagles can control the ball with long drives, Kansas City may be in trouble.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-11If you're betting player props or totals in a Super Bowl, bet OVERs early and UNDERs late. The public will always back the OVERs as we get closer to kickoff and the numbers often drift up.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-11Make sure to not over correlate your props based on a game script you are expecting. If you are betting 1U per prop, it can leave you with a large bet on a specific outcome.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-12Officiating could play a big role in the way the Super Bowl plays out. Chris Jones lines up offsides most plays and the Chiefs' secondary can get "handsy."
The Lombardi LineNHL2023-02-16Pay attention to scheduling out of the All-Star break in the NHL, you have teams that play a brutal amount of games in a short time to make up for the break.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-02-18Unranked teams at home favored over ranked teams are 29-13 ATS this season.
The Lombardi Line* OTHER2023-02-20When there's down time in the sports calender like today, it's a great opportunity to review your recent wins and losses and analyze your handicapping. Spend some down time now to make money later.
The Lombardi LineXFL2023-02-23Make sure you understand the XFL rules and how they affect the decision making on offense. The rules trend to 1H UNDER and 2H OVER.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-02-24Don't rush to bet NFL futures with so many dominoes to fall in terms of free agency and the draft, unless you feel confident that a team will make a move that'll shorten their odds.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-02-25Late in the college basketball regular season, look out for "revenge spots" or games with added motivation like senior nights in your handicap.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-03-01Look for player props outside of Kevin Durant tonight because the betting market hasn't had a chance to adjust for his impact on the Suns.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-03-02Look for ways to profit on the tanking teams in the NBA. The Spurs and Rockets are a combined 1-6 ATS since the All Star Break.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-03-03Don't blindly bet against tanking teams in the NBA pre-flop. Consider waiting to bet in-game. Also, try to find "tanking" teams outside of Charlotte, Houston, etc. like the OKC Thunder.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-04NFL teams use the combine for player discovery. If you're hearing buzz about a player, take note for when their draft props are posted.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-05Franchise tag deadline is Tuesday and free agency kicks off March 15th. Make sure you're monitoring offseason moves by NFL teams before placing bets in the futures market.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-06The betting market may be overreacting to Anthony Richardson's combine performance. Keep an eye out for his draft-position props and head-to-head draft props for an opportunity to fade the hype.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-03-07Last season the Grizzlies went 20-5 without Ja Morant. This season is a different story. They’ve gone 4-6 without him this year. Throw out last year’s success when betting on Grizzlies games going forward.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-08Be sure to watch Conference Tournaments to see how these middle-of-the-pack CBB teams do under pressure. You'll be able to see if they are threats in the NCAA Tournament next week.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-09Don't be fooled by motivation factors in college basketball tournaments for bubble teams looking to secure a spot or high-seeded teams with "nothing to gain." All teams are playing and coaching hard to win in these postseason tourneys.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-10Consider betting totals UNDER in games featuring desperate teams, as opposed to backing them on the side. These games are played possession-by-possession and rarely become high-scoring open court games.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-11If you're looking to bet NFL futures, take a look at divisions with uncertainty at the top of the odds board. (Ex: 49ers -160, Rams +250 in the NFC West. Might be value on Seahawks at +500.)
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-12Don't get too crazy betting longshots to win the NCAA Tournament. Only two teams have won the NCAA tournament at 25/1 odds or longer entering Rd 1 since at least 1975. The last five NCAA Champs entered Rd 1 at shorter than 10/1.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-12Take note of specific teams you're looking to fade or back in the tournament and focus in on their matchups first when the bracket is revealed. Don't try to bet it all at once, be selective.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-14For NCAA Tournament games, all the line movement will happen right after lines are posted, and then right before the game tips off. Target those times to take advantage of the varied numbers.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-15Keep your twitter feed up to date during NFL free agency and you can find value on futures markets if you are quick enough.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-16Look for conference strength or weakness early and jump on it by betting or fading other teams from the same conference.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-17Don't get too high or too low on these long days of college basketball betting. It's not a good idea to double down after a hot start or chase after profits if you lose a few bets.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-18Make sure you know the city these neutral site NCAA tournament games are in. For example, No. 1 seed Houston is playing Auburn in Birmingham, AL today. There'll be a lot of War Eagle fans in the stands.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-19This late in the season, opening lines are sharp and early movement is quick. With all of the volatility in this year's tournament games, you have a great chance of getting a better number in-game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-20The hype of free agency happens every year, but for bettors it is important to focus most on the fit. Which teams put most of their puzzle together with free agent pieces?
The Lombardi LineNHL2023-03-21Be conscious of tanking in the NHL. Connor Bedard is deemed the next Connor McDavid. Teams at the bottom of the standings, like the Blue Jackets, Sharks, Blackhawks and Ducks, need to stay there.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-03-22Certain players can completely flip a line once they are upgraded to probable in the NBA. For example, Luka Doncic had a 3-point impact on tonight's game against the Warriors. Stay ready to jump on a bet based on your newsfeed.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-23If you like a short favorite like Alabama to cut down the nets, grab the +350 now. They'll be favored in every game moving forward, barring a potential underdog role vs Houston in the final. You'll have plenty of opportunity to hedge out.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-24The Panthers are setting themselves up well with free agent signings - including adding DJ Chark today. With their choice of a rookie QB, Carolina +250 to win the NFC South is an attractive bet.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-25FAU was 30th in 3PT % in the country during the regular season, shooting at 37%. The Owls are below 30% from beyond the arc in the tournament and could be due for positive regression.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-26The NFL owners meetings are this week in Arizona and Michael is hearing a lot of positive buzz about Bryce Young. Consider locking in a number on the Alabama QB to go No. 1 overall while he's still plus-money.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-03-27If you like the Nuggets tonight against the 76ers, consider betting Nikola Jokic to win MVP. Embiid and Jokic's head-to-head matchups mean a lot in the final voting.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-28Make sure to look at the derivative markets when playing off of news & headlines. Often they are adjusted slower than main markets.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-03-29There is a reason books already have NFL futures markets like division odds and win totals up before the Draft. There are very few players who will move these markets. Don't feel like you have to wait until after that to place a bet.
The Lombardi LineMLB2023-03-30Look at first 5 inning UNDERs and full game OVERs because of the rule adjustments and ghost runners in extras innings.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-03-31Consider betting 1H UNDERs in the Final Four with teams adjusting to playing basketball in a football stadium. The sight-lines are much different and could affect shooting early in the game.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-04-01If you believe UConn will win the championship, there's a number of ways to get down on the Huskies to maximize value. Consider a ML rollover, a championship exacta or betting Sanogo to win MOP.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-02If you're betting the final games of the NBA season, consider cutting down your unit size with so much motivation and injury uncertainty.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-03If you're searching for a "Cinderella" NFL team that can outperform the betting market's expectations, make sure they have a favorable schedule and a QB ready to take a leap forward.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-04When betting NFL win totals this year, consider overs in the NFC and unders in the AFC. The level of QB play is much stronger in the AFC and therefore makes it harder to win games. The opposite is true for the NFC.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-05As the NBA season winds down, most teams are simply focused on winning. The books will overvalue teams with motivation when making spreads. Don’t be fooled by over-inflated spreads.
The Lombardi LineMLB2023-04-06If you're going to bet the run-line in the MLB, betting -1.5 on a road team maximizes your chances to cover since they'll always get 9 innings at-bat - no matter the score.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-07In the NFL draft betting market, the sportsbooks and public are operating on the same information. Mock drafts aren't gospel and your best path to profitability may be fading the noise.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-08The head coach's input is important, but is often not the dominating voice in the draft room. Be careful not to put too much stake into what you think the HC will do when handicapping draft props.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-09QB draft props tend to be over-inflated by the betting market. At DraftKings, Anthony Richardson's position prop is O/U 4.5 and Will Levis is O/U 7.5. Michael doesn't believe either are worthy of going in the top 10.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-10The NFL Draft betting markets are volatile and sportsbooks adjust odds at different speeds, causing high variance in pricing. If you hear information or see a market moving, shop around for the best price.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-11Use these NBA Play-in games to gauge teams’ actual playoff potential. The regular season in the NBA isn’t a great reference point since so many teams rest players. These games will show you just how good a team is.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-12There are so many ways to bet these NBA series besides just who wins. Look at the series spreads or total games to find better value on matchups you have a strong feel for.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-13There may be some value on betting players other than CJ Stroud in the No. 2 Overall pick market. If the Texans aren't sold on a QB, they could pick Will Anderson, Jalen Carter or another top defensive prospect.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-14When you're handicapping the NBA Playoffs, focus more on on-court matchups than overall team power ratings.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-15Instead of laying a hefty price on a series favorite, consider taking a series spread or bet UNDER the total games prop if you think the series will be short.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-16It doesn't seem the Texans will take CJ Stroud at No. 2 overall. Look for ways to bet Stroud to be drafted after the Texans make their pick.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-17Monitor NBA series prices after each game of the NBA Playoffs. There are often different ways to bet your predicted outcome for maximum value. (ie UNDER 5.5 games vs 4-0 + 4-1 exact result)
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-18If the Celtics get up big again in Game 2, look to bet the Hawks in-game. The Celtics really eased off in the 2nd half of Game 1 and you’ll get a much better cushion on the Hawks if that happens again.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-19Teams down 0-2 going back home in the first half are 15-15-2 ATS in the last 32 instances. That trend has been baked into the market.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-20Michael believes Will Levis will be the second QB taken in the draft. Take a look at Levis' draft props across the market. There may be some value in betting Levis to go before Stroud.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-21Do not dismiss Bijan Robinson because he's a RB. Robinson is an offensive playmaker that can also be a factor in the passing game. He's still plus-money to go Top 10.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-22The Panthers aren't as bad as teams picking No. 1 overall typically are. Consider betting some Carolina futures with Bryce Young under center.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-23As we get closer to the draft, betting limits are higher and big bets typically are more informed. Pay close attention to market movement during draft week.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-25If you have one of the more robust betting apps and are ready to jump on a bet for the NFL Draft, this is the time where you can guarantee a profit on specific picks if you play it right.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-26Remember to get your NFL Draft bets in today. Books in many states will take them down 24 hours before the draft begins tomorrow.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-28The total QBs selected in the first round prop is 6-1 to the UNDER since draft betting began. This year's total was set at 4.5 and 3 QBs were selected.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-04-29Don't overlook the 49ers selecting K Jake Moody with the 99th overall pick. A reliable kicker can go a long way for a team's ability to win and cover NFL games.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-04-30The NBA Playoffs are about matchups. Don't overvalue a team's performance in the first round. Instead, break down the individual matchups for each opponent.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-01NBA injury designations aren't set in stone, especially in Philadelphia. Keep a close eye on Embiid's status heading into Game 1 vs the Celtics. Check out VSiN's NBA Injury Report for the latest.
The Lombardi LineALL2023-05-02Rest is a huge factor in Game 1s of playoff series. We saw the very rested 76ers beat the Celtics without Joel Embiid in their first game. The same can happen in the NHL. Take that into account when you are looking at betting the first game of a series.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-05-03When betting the #1 pick in the draft, stick with your gut, but wait for information to come before placing a bet. The odds will likely shift throughout the offseason and you can get a better number on Caleb Williams or another player you like.
The Lombardi LineALL2023-05-04We have three playoff Game 2s tonight in which the home team lost Game 1. Higher-seeded teams tend to bounce back in these spots. Don't be afraid to lay the points / juice on the home favorite.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-05Joel Embiid will receive his MVP trophy tonight in front of 76ers fans at home ahead of their game vs the Celtics. Consider betting 76ers 1H or 1Q as they may have some extra juice to start Game 3.
The Lombardi Line* OTHER2023-05-06If you're betting parimutuel odds for the Kentucky Derby, the odds are subject to change. With this year's scratches, the odds may be volatile up until post time.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-07Don't be afraid to bet OVER on Kevin Durant and Devin Booker's points props, even if you don't like the Suns to win. Phoenix has few offensive options.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-09You can take advantage of good spreads & totals if you look to bet NBA games the day before. Often times as the games approach, the money will come in and change the numbers. Be ready to get in early.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-10Look to bet tonight’s Lakers-Warriors matchup in-game. Golden State is a pretty big favorite right now. There will very likely be a spot in the game where you can get them at an easier number.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-05-12Consider betting divisional underdogs in week 1. Teams want to play hard vs familiar division opponents and are confident to start the year, no matter the public's perception.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-05-12Consider betting divisional underdogs in week 1. Teams want to play hard vs familiar division opponents and are confident to start the year, no matter the public's perception.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-05-13Take the NFL game spreads with a grain of salt this early in the offseason. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding potential injuries and other factors that could influence the spread.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-14Game 7s have gone UNDER the total 71% of the time since 2018 and 62% of the time since 2003. The sportsbooks know this, though, and may have overadjusted - with the Celtics-76ers total down 10+ points from Game 6.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-05-15If you're using strength of schedule to handicap NFL win totals, put more weight behind opponent's win totals over opponent's win percentage from 2022.
The Lombardi LineALL2023-05-16Correlate your bets for a single game. If you like the Lakers tonight, there’s a good chance their players go over their prop totals. Don’t bet unders for players on the team you think will win.
The Lombardi LineWNBA2023-05-17Bookmakers don’t know that much about the WNBA but sharp bettors do. You can get great closing line value if you pay attention.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-05-18To win Rookie of the Year, the scheme must match the talent and most of all, the team needs to win games. So as you read and review all the rookie evaluations during the next few months, remind yourself unless those factors align, the impact won’t be great—at least this year.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-05-19NFL Week 1 lines moves are driven by offseason narratives. Focus more on your confidence in the coaching staff to prepare their team if you're looking to bet these numbers.
The Lombardi Line* OTHER2023-05-20If you're looking to back Mage to win The Preakness today but want plus-money on your bet, consider betting exotics with a horse like National Treasure in an exacta.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-21Believe what your eyes are telling you. The Miami Heat have been the better team in the ECF, but they're still underdogs in Game 3 at home and have longer odds to win the Finals than Boston.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-22Don't put too much weight into the Lakers not wanting to get swept in tonight's game. The Nuggets have been the better team all series long, but are underdogs in Game 4.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-23Role players have been showing up big-time for the Heat and the market hasn’t adjusted much. Look to bet their overs.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-24The Celtics-Heat series has had opening lines that have been turning heads. The 8-point spread for Game 5 tells you where the market is, yet 80% of bettors are on the Heat, could be a good spot to bet Boston.
The Lombardi LineMLB2023-05-25A good way to back heavy favorites in the MLB without laying a big price is pairing F5 with a full-game bet. Bad teams typically don't come back in the later innings.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-27Don't let the first three games of the Heat-Celtics series define your evaluation of each team. There's a large sample size of the regular season that indicates Boston is the better team.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-28The Celtics are laying -7.5 in Game 7 but the total has been driven down to 203.5. It'll be difficult for Boston to cover such a large spread with such a low total. If you like the Celtics ATS, bet the OVER and vice versa.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-05-29The Nuggets will have the rest advantage in the NBA Finals over the Heat and Celtics. If you're looking to bet Denver to win the Finals, try to make the wager as close to open as possible as the public may come in on the Nuggets.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2023-05-31Do not sleep on the New England Patriots in Week 1 vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots win total is also great value that has a great chance to go over.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-02Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-03Jimmy Butler has talked about being more aggressive in Game 2. If you think he'll bounce back on Sunday night, consider betting OVER on his points prop.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-04If you think the Heat will come out more aggressive and well-adjusted to the altitude, consider betting MIA +4.5 in the first half.
The Lombardi LineNHL2023-06-05The Conn Smythe Award is as much driven by story as stats. When placing wagers in this market, don't forget to factor in narratives throughout the Stanley Cup playoffs in your handicap.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-06As Will Hill’s plays suggest, coordinate your bets. If you think the game will go under, don’t bet a bunch of overs on player props.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-07Pace is a much better indicator of how a game will play out on the total than efficiency. For example, the market has shifted to the UNDER for tonight’s Nuggets-Heat game.
The Lombardi LineNHL2023-06-08If you think the Panthers will come out swinging at home in Game 3, consider laying -110 on the 1P line for a cheaper price than the full-game line of -120.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-09Nikola Jokic is averaging over 14 rebounds per game during the NBA Finals. His rebound props is O/U 12.5 for Game 4. If you think he can continue to dominate the shorter Miami frontcourt, consider betting the OVER.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-06-11When handicapping NFL team win totals, the HC and QB are the most important factors. However, don't discount the ability for an experienced coordinator to elevate the team. Jim Schwartz in Cleveland and Vic Fangio in Miami will improve the defensive unit.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-12Tyler Herro is slated to be back in the Heat lineup tonight, but don't make the mistake of thinking it'll change everything for Miami. The team's offense may be better with Herro, but their defense may suffer.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-14NBA free agency is about to heat up. Stay ready to fire on futures bets, you can gain an edge on the books if you hear news before them.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-16If you're looking to fade the Grizzlies next year, there's not a lot of value left. With the news of Ja Morant's suspension, the market is at an all-time low on Memphis. However, if you're still bullish on the Grizzlies you'll be able to get a good number this off-season.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-06-17If you're looking to bet NFL receiving yards OVERS, focus in on teams that don't have a strong running game and expect to be playing from behind often.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-06-19If you're looking at the new DraftKings market to be the "Most Improved Team," the Broncos are a good choice with a major upgrade at head coach and a QB that's in a make-or-break year.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-06-20When betting NFL Awards, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. The odds are long enough for you to bet on multiple players and can likely guarantee a profit if you have the winner.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-06-21Just a reminder that in some states you must get all of your NBA Draft bets in by tonight.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-06-22Continuity in the offense is the most important factor if you're looking to bet into the "Highest Scoring Team" market at DraftKings. Consider avoiding teams with a new QB or offensive play-caller.
The Lombardi Line* OTHER2023-06-24The College World Series Final between Florida and LSU could see the teams relying on their bullpens. Don't be afraid to bet the OVERs.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-06-25If you think an NFL team is being undervalued, study the division finishing position markets. You can get plus-money on just about every option.
The Lombardi LineNHL2023-06-27Look at all of the markets available for the NHL Draft, sometimes you can get a better number in one market, or you can get a much safer bet with only slightly less juice.
The Lombardi LineNHL2023-06-28With the top 3 picks essentially locked in for tonight’s NHL Draft, use alternate markets to attack the Matvei Michkov markets, you can turn a minus-odds bet into a plus-odds one.
The Lombardi LineALL2023-07-01On any futures bet where you have to wait a significant amount of time, make sure you have a narrow field to choose from. Otherwise it’s likely not worth the risk.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-02Handicapping head coaches is just as important as handicapping the players. There are really great coaches and really bad ones that can affect lines.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-07-04In college football, become a specialist in only a few conferences and it will be much easier to handicap them. If you try to pay attention to all 120+ teams, you will surely miss key information each week.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-05Don’t evaluate the entire team in the preseason. Evaluate the part that the team needed to work on the most and take what you learned into the regular season.
The Lombardi LineNBA2023-07-07When betting on the NBA Summer League, look to betting the over. Many players are trying to optimize their time in the game and make the most out of their opportunities.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-08If the Detroit Lions futures interest you, like division winner & NFC champion, it might be best to wait out the first few weeks of the season, see if they start the season slow and get extra value on the odds.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-09The Patriots haven't had a win total of 7.5 or lower since 2001. They're also one of the most-bet teams to go OVER at BetMGM. If you like the number, bet it now.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-10Study teams like the Lions and Jaguars closely this offseason. Don't assume they'll go from good to great just based off of public perception.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-07-11Look to bet Texas +7 in their game against Alabama instead of the Over 9.5 on Texas’ win total. It’s a quicker and better payout and if they are going over that total, they are likely hanging in with Alabama.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-12The AFC North is going to be pretty good this year. The Steelers are +175 to finish last in the division. This is a solid bet if you like their season win total under. You can get plus money instead of -110, or -115.
The Lombardi LineMLB2023-07-13If you're betting MLB awards during the All Star Break, look for players on teams you think will have a strong second half.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-14In 10 of the 16 NFL Week 1 games, the spread is within a half point of the key numbers of 3 or 7. If you're looking to bet these games, make sure you're getting the best number.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-15Don't bet NFL awards based off a hunch. Break down how you think the season will play out and correlate your bets.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-16The Jets have a tough early schedule and the narrative could flip on the team quickly, creating a buy-low spot for in-season adjusted win totals and division odds.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-17Titans reporter Turron Davenport told us Ryan Tannehill will be the Titans starting QB. With DeAndre Hopkins now on the roster, the Titans could be undervalued headed into this year.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-07-19Coaching changes during the offseason can be very impactful for a college football team's future. Keep this in mind when placing long-term bets.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-07-20Some of the country's top CFB programs like Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia will have new QBs under center this season. Do your due diligence and don't just bet based off a program's pedigree.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-21If you blindly bet the under on every player prop the past two years, you would have won 61% of the time. Now's the time of year to fade the overwhelming optimism across the league.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-22Don't underestimate the impact of the Cleveland Browns adding Jim Schwartz as DC. Having a coordinator with experience as an NFL HC will be invaluable to Kevin Stefanski.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-24Training camp is the time of the year to examine team's weaknesses and evaluate if they're taking steps to success. Hone in on specific groups rather than the entire team in your preseason evaluation.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-07-25Don’t overlook conference win totals for College Football teams. This allows you to just focus on how they match up against the teams within the conference and can narrow your focus.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-07-26When you like a CFB win total over but don’t want to sit on your bet all season, look to bet them in games where they are underdogs instead.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2023-07-27The highest and lowest win totals tend to be extreme in any market - including NFL and CFB. Try to not to buy into those narratives. Generally, the worst teams are little better than you think and vice versa.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-28Favor NFL teams with continuity early in the season. Teams with moving parts often are still trying to figure it out early in the year. (Ex: Bills OVER Jets in Week 1).
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-29Keep a close eye on how training camp injuries affect Week 1 betting lines. We've already seen movement in the CIN-CLE game and MIA-LAC could hit the key number of 3.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-07-30You can learn a lot about QBs by watching preseason games - especially veteran players. If a QB struggles in the exhibition games, they'll likely struggle in the regular season.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-07-31The top 5 ATS teams in college football last year all had returning production OVER 70%. They also all had low expectations in terms of their season win totals of 7.5 or worse. Some teams that fit the system this year: Texas Tech & Kansas State.
The Lombardi LineWORLD CUP2023-08-01If you think the USA women’s team will win it all, now is the time to bet them. They opened around +200 and are now +450 entering the knockout stage. The number won’t get any better than it is at this moment.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-08-02It would take a record-breaking season for a non-quarterback player to win the Heisman as 19 of the last 23 Heisman winners have been Quarterbacks.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-03Make sure you know who'll be playing QB in these preseason games. Coaches are typically transparent about who'll get snaps and QB depth is an important factor if you're betting preseason.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-04We're all making educated guesses based on offseason assessments in NFL Week 1. Be careful betting big favorites before we know which teams are for real.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-05The Broncos win total is set at 8.5 and winning nine games will still be a challenge even though they will be better coached. Wait for the in-season win totals, as we need to get a better feel for Wilson’s playing skills with Payton.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-06Take training camp reports of offensive struggles with a grain of salt. Defenses are often ahead of offenses at this time of year and mistakes give teams something to coach.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-08-07Studying the worst teams in college football can be more valuable than focusing on the nation's best squads. The sportsbooks generally struggle setting the number for bad teams at the lowest levels of the sport.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-08-08Look at CFB passing props for QBs who have undergone changes in their offensive systems. With another year under their belt and a system that works better for them, they are likely to do better than they did last year.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-09Pay attention to which head coaches have said they want to win in the preseason. Some care about the scoreboard and some don’t care at all.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-10How teams perform in the preseason can indicate future problems. Washington did not create one turnover all last preseason, so why were we surprised when they ranked 26th in creating defensive turnovers during the regular season?
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-11The QB who'll be playing in the second half is more important than the starting QB if you're looking to place a full-game preseason bet.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-12The first line move in an NFL preseason game is often the right move based off of the info available. Go with the move or don't bet the game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-13Don't fall for the flash of individual stats in the preseason. Instead, evaluate how specific position groups and units are playing as a whole.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-14Teams that execute at a high level in the preseason tell you that there's an established standard for the program. Consider betting on these squads, especially early in the season.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-15Exercise caution when blindly following NFL preseason line moves. In Week 1 you would have gone 6-8 betting line moves that changed at least 2 points.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-16Focus on underdogs in NFL Division betting where you believe the division has more chances of variance
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-17When betting NFL Week 1, try to target lines that are at the peak or bottom of the market that you don't expect to move any higher / lower. (ie Chiefs -6.5 won't go to -6)
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-18When betting season-long NFL player props, consider targeting players in positional groups that lack durability. (Ex: WR Quentin Johnston behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams)
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-19Pay close attention to reports coming out of joint practices. They are often more indicative than the actual preseason games.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-20Be careful betting on NFL teams early in the year that overhauled their offensive line in the offseason.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-21While you're watching the NFL preseason, consider which teams you'd like to avoid betting early in the season. (Ex: Colts vs Jaguars Week 1)
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-08-22Don’t just blindly bet overs for teams that are expected to be better. If they have made significant improvements, it will be baked into their win total already. Do your research to see if you think they can still go over that number.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2023-08-23When evaluating the which Division will win the Super Bowl market consider divisions with depth at quarterback or take a flyer on specific teams and get a bigger number.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2023-08-24Opening drives are scripted in the NFL and CFB. Don't be afraid to fade early productivity after the live odds shift following an opening score.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-25When analyzing the impact of injuries in the NFL, consider whether the players' absence will change their offensive or defensive scheme. If not, don't overreact.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-08-26The game clock will run after first downs starting this season. This week may be the time to stay away from betting totals until we know how the new rules will impact scoring.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-27If you're looking to bet NFL player props, be careful with players coming off of injury. (ie Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor)
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-28Don't undervalue the kicking position when you're handicapping NFL futures and individual games. A made or missed FG can be the difference between winning and losing your bets.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-08-29Don’t assume the home field advantage that used to be there for the Seahawks is still there. It has significantly cooled off over the last few years. Seattle during 2013-2014 was 22-2 at home; since 2020, they are 15-10. From 2015 until now, they are 41-24-17 games above 500. If they get their home-field advantage back, watch out.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2023-08-30Look at which games are getting the fewest bets and target the teams getting less money. The books aren’t as focused on them because they don’t have as much liability out there.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-08-31With large spreads in CFB Week 1, numbers become less key as the spread get larger. For example, don't buy a half-point at -21 to get to -20.5.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-01If Cooper Kupp is ruled out Week 1 vs the Seahawks, the line will likely move through the key number of 6. If you're looking for CLV, consider taking SEA -5.5 now.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-09-02Watch out for overreactions in the betting market early in the season. Consider playing against large adjustments based off a small sample size. (Ex: Hawaii vs Stanford)
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-09-03Understanding level of competition is important in the early weeks of college football. Don't overadjust a team's power rating after a blow out of a much lesser opponent.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2023-09-04Don't overreact to one data point in NFL or college football's opening week games. Teams will reveal their true identity throughout the season, but don't take week 1 as gospel.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-09-05Include head coaches’ desire to make their alums and fans happy in your handicap. James Franklin appeared to be aware and going for the spread of 21 in their first game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-06 It’s not only QBs who can move lines, there are a handful of other players and Travis Kelce is one of them. Keep your eye out for injury concerns on players with major offensive roles when making your bets.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-09-08There's still a lot of uncertainty in college football because of the transfer portal. Consider lowering your wager amounts early in the season until we have more data points.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-09During the early NFL season, focus on what games you'd like to avoid before putting together your final bets. Avoiding games with uncertainty is important until we have more data points.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-11Don't assume NFL Week 2 will play out the same as Week 1. Every week is different in the NFL. Focus on the matchups in your handicap.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-12Don't assume teams can’t go 0-2. It’s not a lock that teams we expected to win in Week 1 will automatically bounce back this week.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-13When playing Survivor, don't get too far ahead of yourself. The name of the game is to survive and advance. Don't get caught looking ahead.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-14The Eagles are missing their "green-dot" player with LB Nakobe Dean on IR. That means a new player will take over defensive play calling duties on Thursday Night vs the Vikings - which could impact how the defense communicates.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-15The Cowboys are 9-point favorites over the Jets, but the total is only at 38.5 - a very low number for such a big spread. If you like the Jets to cover, consider also betting the UNDER.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-16Broncos HC Sean Payton understands how to attack different schemes well and has been around the league long enough to know how each defensive coordinator behaves. His scheme works well against the Jack Del Rio scheme of Washington.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-18Don't overlook the matchup history between these division rivals on Monday Night Football. Since 2004, the Browns are 1-19 SU, 7-13 ATS in Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin is also 5-1 ATS against Kevin Stefanski.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-19Don’t believe coaches when they are soft-playing an injury. Coaches do not say the truth about these situations in press conferences.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-20Don't let personal biases affect your power rankings for NFL teams. Be sure to stick to a rating system that doesn't account for personal biases.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-09-22With several high-profile CFB games this weekend, odds for the Heisman and other futures markets could shift drastically. If you have a strong opinion, bet it now to secure the best number.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-23Browns DC Jim Schwartz worked last year in Tennessee helping the Titans with their game plans. Schwartz makes his home in Nashville, which made it a comfortable situation for him and also allowed him to understand the players and coaching of the Titans.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-24Derek Carr is 19-30-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (122 of 122 QBs).
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-25Don't rush to bet Bengals-Rams pregame. This is a good spot to live bet, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Joe Burrow's game status and effectiveness.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-09-26Examine Heisman candidates’ remaining schedules before placing bets. Players at the top of the board have tough games still to come, and many of them play each other.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-27Trends can be a helpful indicator on games to eliminate from your board.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-09-28The Lions have played great against the NFC North recently. Detroit has covered 10 straight division games, the 2nd-longest cover streak in the Super Bowl era.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-09-29Be aware of potential look-ahead spots for Texas and Oklahoma ahead of next week's Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns are hosting a good Kansas team and Oklahoma is laying three TDs vs Iowa State.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-02Including the playoffs, Daniel Jones is 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS in Prime Time in his career. He's also 0-5 SU at home in those spots.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-10-03Not all 5-0 CFB teams are created equal. Take a look at who they’ve played before blindly assuming they are the better team in the matchup.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-04It is extremely valuable to know how teams perform not just in the win/loss column but also against the point spread. The spread is a secondary competition for teams when it comes to gambling.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-05The Bears have allowed 25 points or more in 14 straight games. The Commanders team total is sitting at 25.5 on Thursday Night.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-10-06Last season, TCU was unranked entering October and Michigan was 14th in 2021 - both made the CFP later that year. Don't be afraid to bet on a team outside the Top 10 to make the CFP.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-10-07No. 1 Georgia hasn't covered a game yet this season, but don't let that prevent you from betting on the Dawgs. Could be a buy-low spot on the defending champs laying 14.5 vs Kentucky.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-09Now that we know who the worst teams are in the NFL, expect spreads to get bigger and bigger - especially when a bad team plays a contender.
The Lombardi LineNFL/CFB2023-10-10Weather is going to be a huge factor this weekend. Check the forecast ahead of each game and be ready to hedge any early bets you made.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-11 It’s the best NFL betting start for the public since 2005, at 44-27-3 ATS through 5 weeks. Check out the betting splits and ride with the more popular team.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-12There are several lines that'll be popular teaser options this week, especially Browns-49ers. Expect that number to even more towards San Francisco as books look for teaser protection.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-13A lot of NFL games this weekend are hovering around the key numbers of 7 and 3. Monitor the line moves and make sure you're getting the best of the number, even if you have to buy a half-point.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-15Jim Schwartz is 8-1 SU against Kyle Shanahan since they met as coordinators for the first time in 2008. The Browns may be able to slow down the 49ers offense.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-16Justin Herbert and the Chargers have trouble holding leads. Herbert is 7-24-2 against the 2H spread when leading at the half. Take this into account if LA gets off to a hot start tonight vs the Cowboys.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-10-17Don’t rule out 1-loss teams to make the CFP. There are a ton of tough games left for the undefeated teams. The best numbers are on teams with losses.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-18If you want to buy back in and back the Jets don't do it with the assumption that Aaron Rodgers is going to return this season. Do it with the assumption they win with defense.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-10-19Michael Penix Jr. is the first odds-on favorite to win the Heisman in Week 8 of the CFB season since Lamar Jackson in 2016. There's significant value on potentially inflated odds for the rest of the candidates.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-10-20Mike Elko has never lost a game by double-digits during his tenure at Duke. The Blue Devils are 14.5-point underdogs at Florida State on Saturday.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-23Divergent thinking is the best path towards success betting the NFL. Circa Millions Consensus Picks went 1-4, while the least-picked sides went 4-1 in Week 7. If you're thinking the same way as everyone else, you're not thinking at all.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-24We have to keep doing what we are doing to break down teams and never assume a team is trying to lose---that’s NBA talk, not NFL.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-25Bad teams play better at home than they do on the road. Ex. The Panthers have only 2 turnovers at home vs 6 on the road. Their average margin of defeat as been 5.5 at home vs 15.7 on the road.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-27Week 8 is shaping up to be a good week for teasers, with plenty of opportunities to tease through multiple key numbers. If you like a big favorite to win but not cover, consider pairing in a teaser.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-10-28Will the Georgia Bulldogs play down to their competition today vs Florida? Georgia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 as a double-digit favorite and 0-7-1 in its last 8 games against unranked teams.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-10-30Don’t overreact to the transactions we’ll see ahead of Tuesday’s 4PM ET trade deadline - especially in your handicap of Week 9’s slate. New additions often take time to make an impact.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-10-31Don’t overreact to the first set of CFP rankings, but use it as a way of knowing how the committee views teams as of right now.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-01With all the backup QBs playing this week in the NFL, practice discipline. You don’t have to bet every game preflop. But be ready to jump in live when you see that one of them might actually be decent.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-02Rookie QBs are 5-23 against the Steelers in the Mike Tomlin era. Titans QB Will Levis will start his second-ever game tonight in Pittsburgh.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-03Be careful using the entire season's worth of data when handicapping this week's NFL slate. All data needs context - especially when injuries are involved. (Ex Bengals Offense, Bills Defense)
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-11-04Don't dismiss USC and Clemson as home underdogs against higher-ranked teams. These programs are still legit, especially at home.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-06If you like the Jets as an underdog tonight, also consider betting the UNDER. If you like the favorite with the Chargers, it correlates with the OVER.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-07Unders have been hitting at an incredible rate. But the tide might start to change with bookmakers catching on and lowering totals. Get your bets in before they catch on.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-08NFL is a week-to-week league so focus on the team’s previous 4 games rather than their full-season outlook when considering betting a team.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-09Keep in mind when you're looking at betting splits that bets made at different numbers throughout the week count just the same as today's action. Be cautious when breaking down splits on a game where a line has moved - especially around or through key numbers.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-10Don't be afraid to lay the points with Dallas just because it's the biggest spread of the season. Three of the five Cowboys wins this season have been by 20 points or more.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-11Scoring has been down all year, but it could be even worse on Sunday. Nine QBs with 10 or less NFL starts will start in Week 10. Three teams have a third different starter for the third straight week (Cardinals, Vikings and Giants).
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-13Don't be afraid to lay over a TD tonight on MNF. As home favorites of 7 or more the Bills and Josh Allen are 19-1 SU. Josh Allen has 60 career wins, and 45 have been by 7 points or more.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-14Over the last 5 seasons, underdogs in AFC North matchups are 69-43-3
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-15Whenever there’s a change mid-week in Quarterback wait to place your bet. The numbers will continue to fluctuate until game time.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-16The Ravens are 19-3 at home in regular-season night games since 2008. The Bengals have lost 13 straight on the road in that situation.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-17With Joe Burrow's season-ending wrist injury, the AFC is even more wide-open. Break down the top contenders' remaining schedule before you take a position on a conference winner.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-20This weekend's NFL action was a good example of why it's important to monitor line moves throughout the week. Also, don't be afraid to bet against the line moves. (Ex: Houston covered -4.5, but not -5.5 vs Arizona)
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-21Casual bettors bet a ton on Thanksgiving, and we can expect a lot on Black Friday too, the odds will likely change a lot from now until right before kickoff.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-22Backing the public has been profitable on Thanksgiving. Favorites with more than 60% of tickets are 22-8 ATS
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-24Young NFL teams like the Packers are still improving at this point in the season. Don't let a slow start cloud your evaluation of a team that has played better recently.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-26The most important data to use in your handicap is the last 4 weeks of the NFL season. The most recent data is always the most actionable.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-11-29Beware when betting College Football Bowl games super early. Many players who are protecting their draft stock will not end up playing and impact the line.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-11-29While not all trends have equal value, the primetime unders one appears to be real. While betting overs is fun, 23-3 for SNF & MNF unders is not something to ignore.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-12-01If you're looking to monetize your Bo Nix Heisman ticket, wait until after tonight's Pac 12 Championship. You will likely get the best number for a straight bet on Jayden Daniels after the game.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-02If you like Brock Purdy to win NFL MVP, Sunday's Eagles-49ers game is a high leverage spot. The number could get drastically shorts in San Francisco wins.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-04This Bengals defense has regressed dramatically from last year's team. The problems don't end with the offense in Cincinnati, make sure your properly evaluating both sides of the ball in your MNF handicap.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-12-05When thinking about potential opt outs for draft caliber players, take the approach that he’s not playing in your handicap.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-06Reverse line movement isn't related to the number of bets but the percentages on each side and the wagers the sharps are making.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-07There are more ways to bet on a low-scoring game besides the UNDER. Take a look at Punt or Defensive Props.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-08If you're looking to get involved with the NFL futures market, work backwards in your handicap by first crossing off players / coaches you believe CAN'T win the award before honing in on who you believe WILL.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-11There are six AFC teams sitting at 7-6 and all but one are favored to MISS the playoffs. If you like any of those teams to make the postseason, you can get plus-money on your bet.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-12-12When you’re dealing with opt outs and transfers don't just focus spreads. There are many other angles to target, and live betting opportunities when you see a team’s motivation.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-13This NFL season has been wildly unpredictable. If a line looks too easy and therefore fishy to you, it might be one to skip.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-15There are a lot of playoff implications for NFL Week 15. Make sure you factor what's at stake for these teams in your handicap.
The Lombardi LineCBB2023-12-16If you don't like a bet pre-game but think it'll be tight, don't be afraid to watch the game and get in with a live-bet on the underdog after a scoring run.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-18The NFL MVP, like all awards, is voted on by humans. And sometimes voters get it WRONG. Don't make the mistake of assuming they'll do the right thing.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-20When you handicap teams, it’s important to break down their wins into these three categories (dominating, dictating, and dangerous). As we move towards the end of the season, we need to be aware of the type of wins each team has accumulated when handicapping.
The Lombardi LineCFB2023-12-26Don't focus solely on spreads and totals for these bowl games. There are hundreds of ways to bet them. Do a little research and you are sure to find an edge.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-28There have been 8 different players to have been at least co-favorites to win the NFL MVP this season. Goes to show that awards markets are often impacted by recent performance, not overall play.
The Lombardi LineNFL2023-12-29At this point in the NFL season, don't fight against media narratives for awards races. Instead, find a way to bet them.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-01When betting NFL Week 18, be wary of backing teams that could see major changes in the offseason.
The Lombardi LineCFB2024-01-02Next year's CFP bracket will be much different. You can bet multiple teams as soon as you see the odds go up and give yourself a great shot to hedge when the playoff comes around.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-03When betting on Week 18, you really have to monitor the injury report and focus on games where you can handicap both teams.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-05Don't be afraid to back teams that are resting players. The market tends to overreact to this information, especially in rivalry / division games.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-06Don't just factor in personnel in your Week 18 handicap. Also consider a team's gameplan and if you expect to see a limited playbook.
The Lombardi LineCFB2024-01-08There's an opportunity to correlate your bets in tonight's CFB title game. A Washington win / cover correlates with an OVER, while Michigan win / cover correlates to an UNDER.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-10It doesn’t matter how a team played in October; it only matters how well a team is playing now. Peaking at the right time is so important.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-15With AJ Brown and Gabe Davis OUT tonight, consider which players you believe will replace their production if you're looking to bet props.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-16All week we thought the Bills game would feature a ton of wind, which is the main weather element that affects games. But upon game time, the wind was a non-factor. Be sure to keep your eye on the forecast all the way up until game time if that is a part of your handicap.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-18This Saturday's 49ers-Packers will have a lot riding on who scores first, as neither team is great at playing from behind. Consider betting live after the first score.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-19The juice in both the Lions-Bucs (DET -6.5 at -118) and Chiefs-Bills (BUF -2.5 at -120) is pointing towards moving to key numbers. If you want to get under 7 or 3, don't wait.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-22The public is already rushing to the counter to bet the Lions, but the 49ers just went to 7-point favorites at DraftKings. The public won't drive line moves with oddsmakers' ratings so fine-tuned after a season of data.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-24While looking into NFL referee betting trends, bet with caution as sometimes these trends are noise and the public information could get back to the main referee.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-29While the Super Bowl line is moving toward the Kansas City Chiefs, it's unlikely that we'll see a flip of favorites - but not impossible.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-01-30Make sure that your prop bets correlate with the way you think the game is going to go. If you think the total will go over, it's not likely that a lot of players will stay under their prop numbers.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-02-01Make sure you're getting value with you ML bet. A two-point underdog like the Chiefs should be +124, but that number isn't available anywhere. It may be best to just bet the spread at -110.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-02-02No player has ever won Super Bowl MVP three times in their first three Super Bowl games. Neither Brady nor Montana won MVP in their third Super Bowl. If the Chiefs win, voters may be look somewhere else than Mahomes.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-02-03If you're betting Super Bowl props for entertainment purposes, look for good plus-money prices and stay away from laying huge numbers on things like "No Safety", etc.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-02-04If you're looking to bet player prop UNDERs for the Super Bowl, wait until closer to the game. Public action typically drives these numbers up because fans love an OVER.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-02-12NFL futures markets are already up, but this time of the year is more about eliminating teams than placing wagers.
The Lombardi LineCBB2024-02-13When transitioning over from betting on the NFL to betting on basketball, keep an eye out for those analytic sites and rely on the Power Ratings.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-02-15The only reason to attack NFL futures at this point in the offseason is to get ahead of line moves. If you think money will be coming in on a particular team or player throughout the summer, bet it now.
The Lombardi LineCBB2024-02-16Unless you think you have an edge on a team who's price will plummet, avoid betting CBB futures until after Selection Sunday when you know the potential path.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-02-18Anticipating free agency and offseason moves can get you an edge in the futures market. For example, if the Vikings re-sign Kirk Cousins their Super Bowl price will shorten from 55/1.
The Lombardi LineNBA2024-02-26The Lakers are -170 to MISS the Playoffs at DraftKings. They're a beat up team and have a loaded schedule upcoming. This price will only get longer.
The Lombardi LineNBA2024-02-27Similarly to betting small conferences in CBB, it's easier to find an edge on less well-known players if you're looking to get involved with NBA props. For example, Jayson Tatum's Point Prop will be sharper than Derrick White's.
The Lombardi LineMLB2024-02-28If you're looking into the MLB win totals, betting UNDERs before the season is best. Wait until you're sure of a team's health / personnel before you bet an OVER.
The Lombardi LineNHL2024-02-29When you're placing NHL bets this close to the trade deadline, make sure you know which teams could be buyers / sellers and stay up-to-date with the latest lineups.
The Lombardi LineNFL2024-03-04If you're placing bets on NFL futures at this point in the offseason, it's because you believe they'll get shorter based on offseason moves. Don't bet a number now that'll still be available closer to the season.
The Lombardi LineCBB2024-03-05Don't sleep on a team like Gonzaga to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. While they haven't dominated like usual, they've only lost one game of their last 14 and may be undervalued in the futures market.
The Lombardi LineCBB2024-03-05Don't sleep on a team like Gonzaga to make a run in the NCAA Tournament. While they haven't dominated like usual, they've only lost one game of their last 14 and may be undervalued in the futures market.
The Lombardi LineCBB2024-03-06A money line rollover strategy may be a better option than betting a team to win their conference tourney outright. Plus, all you have to do to hedge is stop betting.
The Lombardi LineNBA2024-03-10The NBA Playoffs is an entirely different season. Don't overvalue teams at the top of their conference or undervalue lower-seeded teams.
The Lombardi LineCBB2024-03-12Mid-Major conference tournaments are a great chance to get a look at potential NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams. If a team looks good in their conference tourney, they could be a good team to back in the early rounds of next week's tournament.
The Lombardi LineCBB2024-03-13More often than not, it's best practice to avoid betting an odds-on favorite to win their conference tournament.
The Lombardi LineCBB2024-03-19Scoring tends to start slow in teams' first game of the postseason as they adjust to a new arena and tournament play in general. Consider betting 1H UNDERs.